Important inputs for the Ortec Finance Scenarioset are the "steady state assumptions" of the economy and financial variables. These long term expectations are based on a building block approach. In a building block approach one thinks about expectations in terms of components as growth, inflation, real interest rates, term spreads, inflation risk premiums and asset class risk premiums.
Building on a solid foundation we developed in 2011, we have developed a comprehensive and consistent framework for setting expected long-term means for a broad range of financial and economy variables.
This paper covers three major chapters, in which we explain how we determine the long-term expectations of GDP, CPI and real interest rates for individual regions relevant for a horizon of 25 to 40 years. Each chapter is self-contained and explains our methodology and the final long-term assumptions. Several macroeconomic aspects, for example demographic change and market globalization, are discussed as well.