If you were unable to attend our Q2 2021 Scenario Webinar on July 22 – The return of inflation and the frequency domain toolkit for economic modeling – you can access the presentation, the recording, and the Q2 Economic Outlook here. Download the presentation via the form on this page.
Our quarterly outlook is based on the Ortec Finance Economic Scenario Generator and offers our perspective on recent developments in the global economy and capital markets and what these mean for the future.
- Gain expert insights into future economic and financial market developments with our Q2 Economic Outlook.
- Get the latest news and an in-depth analysis of the key drivers of risk and return.
Q2 Economic Outlook highlights include:
- In the second quarter of 2021, economies have started to reopen against the background of the accelerated vaccine rollout. On the downside, the rapid spreading of the Delta variant is a source of concern.
- Equity markets reached new all-time highs as investors anticipate a continuation of the economic rebound. Going forward, the Ortec Finance Momentum Indicator signals equity market momentum to fade in the coming year.
- Stronger than anticipated economic growth combined with inflationary pressure, especially from rising commodity prices, worsens the outlook of the Ortec Finance Business Cycle Indicator. This leads to lower expected equity returns and higher credit spreads on a 1-3 year horizon.
- Although we do recognize the risk for higher inflation, in line with central banks, we expect the recent spike in inflation to be transitory as supply chains need time to adjust to excess demand.
- Due to lingering uncertainty about the Delta variant as well as inflation risk, we expect market volatility to remain elevated over the one-year horizon.
Other downloads
Contact
Hens Steehouwer
Chief Innovation Officer
Patrick Tuijp
Head of Global Clients Scenarios & Asset ValuationRelated Insights
-
18 December 2024Climate change could erode Canadian pension fund returns by 44%Ortec Finance releases inaugural Canada pension fund climate risk report, analyzing the average portfolio allocation of the Top 30 pension funds in Canada by AUM
-
.png?w=576&hash=ACDB68A89AC45F798869837DDC9018AE)
17 December 2024Climate risk assessment – Top 30 Canadian pension fundsDiscover how climate change impacts the top 30 Canadian pension funds through an analysis of their climate risk exposure, using Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios.
-
17 December 2024Assessing the climate risk exposure of pension funds and insurance companies worldwideAccess a series of Ortec Finance reports to examine how climate risk exposure and resilience vary among pension funds and insurance companies worldwide
-
17 December 2024PRESS RELEASE: US pension plans report possibility of increasing contributions despite improved funded status8% of pension plan managers say their funded status has improved over the past year, study shows
-
16 December 2024Climate risk assessment – Top 30 US pension fundsDiscover how climate change impacts the US pension fund industry through an analysis of their climate risk exposure, using Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios
-
16 December 2024US pension funds most sensitive to climate changeOrtec Finance releases inaugural US pension fund climate risk report, analyzing the average portfolio allocation of the Top 30 pension funds in the US by AUM
-
11 December 2024Climate risk assessment – Top 30 UK pension fundsDiscover how climate change impacts the top 30 UK pension funds through an analysis of their climate risk exposure, using Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios.
-
11 December 2024UK pension fund investment returns could reduce by 30% in a high warming stress scenarioOrtec Finance releases inaugural UK pension fund climate risk report, analyzing the average portfolio allocation from the Top 30 pension funds by AUM
-
09 December 2024Climate risk assessment – European pension fundsLearn how climate change impacts European pension funds, via an analysis on a reference portfolio that represents their average asset allocation.