If you were unable to attend our Q2 2021 Scenario Webinar on July 22 – The return of inflation and the frequency domain toolkit for economic modeling – you can access the presentation, the recording, and the Q2 Economic Outlook here. Download the presentation via the form on this page.
Our quarterly outlook is based on the Ortec Finance Economic Scenario Generator and offers our perspective on recent developments in the global economy and capital markets and what these mean for the future.
- Gain expert insights into future economic and financial market developments with our Q2 Economic Outlook.
- Get the latest news and an in-depth analysis of the key drivers of risk and return.
Q2 Economic Outlook highlights include:
- In the second quarter of 2021, economies have started to reopen against the background of the accelerated vaccine rollout. On the downside, the rapid spreading of the Delta variant is a source of concern.
- Equity markets reached new all-time highs as investors anticipate a continuation of the economic rebound. Going forward, the Ortec Finance Momentum Indicator signals equity market momentum to fade in the coming year.
- Stronger than anticipated economic growth combined with inflationary pressure, especially from rising commodity prices, worsens the outlook of the Ortec Finance Business Cycle Indicator. This leads to lower expected equity returns and higher credit spreads on a 1-3 year horizon.
- Although we do recognize the risk for higher inflation, in line with central banks, we expect the recent spike in inflation to be transitory as supply chains need time to adjust to excess demand.
- Due to lingering uncertainty about the Delta variant as well as inflation risk, we expect market volatility to remain elevated over the one-year horizon.
Other downloads
Contact
Hens Steehouwer
Chief Innovation Officer
Patrick Tuijp
Head of Global Clients Scenarios & Asset ValuationRelated Insights
-
18 November 2024Ortec Finance appoints Koen de Reus to Head of Client Servicing, Climate & ESG SolutionsKoen de Reus will lead a team of climate risk professionals to help financial institutions measure, manage, and monitor their portfolio’s climate risk exposure.
-
07 November 2024Insights from the FCA’s “Dear CEO” letter of October 7, 2024: What advisers need to knowThe Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) continues to stress the importance of firms prioritizing consumer needs and delivering good outcomes.
-
07 November 2024Exciting updates for our international Client Conference formatAnnouncement of some updates regarding the Ortec Finance annual International Client Conference.
-
30 October 2024How AI can help manage insurance portfoliosLearn how our Scenario-Based Machine Learning (SBML) approach enables insurers to optimize complex objectives by training AI on thousands of simulated scenarios, uncovering high-performing portfolios traditional methods might miss. Discover how AI-driven scenario analysis is transforming insurance portfolio management.
-
29 October 2024Quarterly Outlook: Q3 2024The outlook is based on the Ortec Finance Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) and offers our perspective on recent developments in the economy and capital markets.
-
23 October 2024Quarterly Pensions Investments ReviewThe Quarterly Pensions Investments Review is a comparison in expected risk and investment return.
-
08 October 2024The Importance of Financial Planning: A Spotlight on World Financial Planning Day 2024As we celebrate World Financial Planning Day 2024, here is why financial planning is more crucial than ever.
-
01 October 2024Ortec Finance appoints Maurits van Joolingen to head Climate & ESG SolutionsMaurits van Joolingen will be responsible for Ortec Finance’s climate scenario analysis tool to support the risk management needs of financial institutions.
-
30 September 2024Retirement Planning Myths Debunked: What You Really Need to KnowNavigating retirement planning can feel overwhelming, especially with the myths and misconceptions that surround it.