Gain expert insights into future economic and financial market developments with our Q3 Economic Outlook. Get the latest news and an in-depth analysis of the key drivers of risk and return. Our quarterly outlooks are based on the Ortec Finance Economic Scenario Generator and offer our perspective on recent developments in the global economy and capital markets and what these mean for the future.
Q3 Economic Outlook highlights include:
- Covid-19 and its containment measures led to a deep global recession. Currently, we are at a tipping point with a second wave of infections in Europe and the Middle East. Our baseline assumption is that the second wave can be brought under control and a second global lockdown can be avoided.
- The macroeconomic environment deteriorated more than anticipated which worsened the contraction phase of the Ortec Finance Business Cycle Indicator. Nevertheless, the recession bottomed out. Supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, the global economy began a U-shaped economic recovery which we expect to progress but to gradually lose pace.
- In line with the recovery, financial markets rebounded further during the third quarter. Going forward, the Ortec Finance Momentum Indicator points to modestly positive momentum in financial markets.
- The pandemic’s economic impact, however, remains highly uncertain. The major downside risk is a prolonged or stronger impact on economic activity. A second lockdown is not ruled out and may slow down the recovery.
- As in June 2020, to serve our clients in the best possible manner in extraordinarily uncertain times, we provide a less cyclical version of our outlook in which the business cycle model is damped by 50% compared to our regular outlook.
Downloads
- Download the full Q3 Economic Outlook pdf here
- Watch the full Q3 Economic Outlook (or previous) webinar movie(s) here
- Download the presentation here
- Download the whitepaper Mastering the Dimensions of Correlations here
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