In 2018, in response to growing investor concerns of climate change’s systemic impact to worldwide financial markets and economies, a team of consultants commenced their journey to develop a top-down approach to analyzing climate risks.
Their efforts led to the pioneering creation of climate scenarios that can realistically quantify the financial impacts across macroeconomies, asset classes and sectors worldwide under different climate change futures.
Since the first release of our proprietary Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios, within ClimateMAPS, climate scenarios have emerged as a mainstream tool for financial institutions to analyze their portfolio’s climate physical, transition and market pricing risks, as well as identifying opportunities, over the short- and longer-term horizon.
In line with Ortec Finance’s commitment towards continuous innovation, our climate scenario modeling framework has evolved and improved over the past eight years, becoming recognized as a market-leading climate risk analysis tool for institutional investors.
With the 2025 release marking the 11th update to our proprietary scenarios, we reflect on the key milestones of ClimateMAPS, in exclusive partnership with Cambridge Econometrics.
Launch of Ortec Finance
Climate Scenarios
2018
The inaugural version of Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios, containing three scenarios across a range of plausible futures, is released following the completion of a pilot project in partnership with OPTrust, a Canadian pension fund, and input from AP1, a.s.r., Pensioenfonds van de Metalektro (PME) and Philips Pensioenfonds.
Exclusive partnership
with Cambridge Econometrics
2019
An exclusive strategic long-term partnership is established with Cambridge Econometrics, enabling results to incorporate a comprehensive range of climate-related transition risk drivers via their globally recognized E3ME model.
Exclusive partnership
with Cambridge Econometrics
2019
An exclusive strategic long-term partnership is established with Cambridge Econometrics, enabling results to incorporate a comprehensive range of climate-related transition risk drivers via their globally recognized E3ME model.
Integration of ClimatePREDICT
2019
Open-source data is utilized to assess acute physical climate risks, via our proprietary extreme weather modeling tool, that considers extreme weather event occurrences, direct losses and urbanization rates on GDP impacts.
Release of interactive web-based
Climate Scenario Explorer
2019
The deliverables generated from our modeling expands via the release of an interactive web-based tool, now known as the Ortec Finance Climate Scenario Explorer. This unique tool enables a deeper understanding of different climate futures, risks and opportunities with dynamic charts, qualitative narratives and expert explanations.
Release of interactive web-based
Climate Scenario Explorer
2019
The deliverables generated from our modeling expands via the release of an interactive web-based tool, now known as the Ortec Finance Climate Scenario Explorer. This unique tool enables a deeper understanding of different climate futures, risks and opportunities with dynamic charts, qualitative narratives and expert explanations.
First bespoke climate scenario
developed for GIC
2020
A customized ‘Delayed Disorderly Transition’ scenario is developed to reflect GIC’s specific views. This scenario anticipates markets pricing-in future climate risks over a comparatively shorter period and a sharp sentiment shock resulting from market overreaction to sudden extreme weather and policy shocks.
Publicly-available
NGFS scenarios offered
2021
Our climate scenario offering widens to include the option for financial institutions to quantify climate risks across all asset classes and macroeconomic variables under publicly available NGFS climate scenarios primarily for climate-related reporting and disclosures.
Publicly-available
NGFS scenarios offered
2021
Our climate scenario offering widens to include the option for financial institutions to quantify climate risks across all asset classes and macroeconomic variables under publicly available NGFS climate scenarios primarily for climate-related reporting and disclosures.
Our work with
GIC and Cambridge Econometrics
is featured on the
World Economic Forum
2022
GIC develops an additional bespoke scenario ‘Too Little Too Late’ to explore a highly disruptive outcome from insufficient policy actions. The implications of their two bespoke scenarios, along with two other Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios are published by the World Economic Forum.
Ortec Finance
Climate Scenario expansion
2023
Our 2023 update introduces a ‘Limited Action’ scenario, reflecting potential outcomes if the world falls short of meeting its commitments (including NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This addition expands our standard suite of Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios to four scenarios – Net-Zero, Net-Zero Financial Crisis, Limited Action, and High Warming.
Ortec Finance
Climate Scenario expansion
2023
Our 2023 update introduces a ‘Limited Action’ scenario, reflecting potential outcomes if the world falls short of meeting its commitments (including NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This addition expands our standard suite of Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios to four scenarios – Net-Zero, Net-Zero Financial Crisis, Limited Action, and High Warming.
Release of integrated
economic and climate scenarios
2024
The impacts generated from ClimateMAPS are now presented relative to a baseline with 2⁰C to 3⁰C warming by 2100. This key repositioning enables the results to be combined and integrated with traditional risk analysis outcomes, as part of the overall release of integrated economic and climate scenarios.
Fifth scenario and
stress scenarios added
2024
A ‘Delayed Net-Zero’ scenario is added in the 10th iteration of Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios, along with variants of the Net-Zero Financial Crisis and High Warming specifically designed to test more extreme outcomes for climate stress-testing purposes.
Fifth scenario and
stress scenarios added
2024
A ‘Delayed Net-Zero’ scenario is added in the 10th iteration of Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios, along with variants of the Net-Zero Financial Crisis and High Warming specifically designed to test more extreme outcomes for climate stress-testing purposes.
Inclusion of
climate tipping points
2024
Our High Warming scenario incorporates the effects of climate tipping points, significantly impacting global temperatures and returns across all asset classes. Our economic loss assessment of this scenario, along with the other four Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios generates escalating impacts that agree with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA’s) recommended use of a logistic damage function.
Continued innovations to enable
an ongoing realistic climate risk assessment
2025
Key highlights from the 2025 release include enhanced impacts for credit portfolios, better reflection of inflation impacts due to chronic physical risks, improved market pricing-in shocks and inclusion of recent temperature anomalies.
Continued innovations to enable
an ongoing realistic climate risk assessment
2025
Key highlights from the 2025 release include enhanced impacts for credit portfolios, better reflection of inflation impacts due to chronic physical risks, improved market pricing-in shocks and inclusion of recent temperature anomalies.
About ClimateMAPS
